Zero-Shot and Ahead of the Pack: What Amazon Chronos Taught Us About the Future of Demand Forecasting

Foundation Model Amazon Chronos on Airline data    We tested the Chronos Foundation model with just one simple time series data set that is available everywhere – the Airline Passenger … Read More

Measuring Forecast Error – Constrained or Unconstrained Forecast?

Is it better to correct the actual sales for supply constraints and come up with a version of the actual demand that is unconstrained?

Measurement is an ex-post event that should not affect the actual forecasting process. If the Sales force is encouraged to think about a constrained forecast, the organization will lose visibility to the true unconstrained demand.

One option will be to use a disciplined process to measure true demand every month and evaluat the unconstrained forecast with this version of true demand.