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Forecasting Blog

Demand Forecasting, Sales Planning, Big Data Analytics & IBP

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Flash News

Five-stage Demand Planning Maturity Curve chart showing Level 1 spreadsheet-driven forecasting through Level 5 advanced IBP maturity

Operating at Level 1 of the Demand Planning Maturity Curve

Line chart showing a historical demand volume spike from a liquidation sale event, with weighted average price drop as an indicator of compromised demand signal quality in a supply chain forecasting model

Your Best Volume Month Could Be Destroying Your Forecast: The Hidden Danger of Demand Signal Pollution

Integrated Business Planning process connecting omni-channel demand signals across stores, marketplaces, DTC, and wholesale into a unified supply chain plan

Why Omni-Channel Without an Effective IBP Is Just Expensive Chaos?

Comparison chart showing Chronos-2 forecast accuracy on airline benchmark data versus real-world business data, highlighting the gap between zero-shot performance on memorized versus unknown datasets

Chronos-2 Revisited: When Zero-Shot Forecasting Meets Real-World Data, Does the Magic Hold?

Bar chart comparing Amazon Chronos-2 forecast accuracy against Holt-Winters and SARIMA on airline passenger traffic data, showing WMAPE and Normalized RMSE metrics

Zero-Shot and Ahead of the Pack: What Amazon Chronos Taught Us About the Future of Demand Forecasting

SAP IBP Heuristic vs Optimizer engine comparison for constrained supply chain planning

SAP IBP Heuristic vs Optimizer: Why Defaulting to Heuristic Is Costing Your Supply Chain

planning strategy, ibp, scenario planning, demand planning, plm mapping

Planning Strategy for New Products in SAP IBP

true-demand

Major Roadblocks to Capturing True Demand

supply-chain-challenges-2023-valtitude

Global Supply Chain Challenges 2023 – Preparing For The Storm

Digital illustration features two computer monitors sitting on an office desk, showcasing real estate forecasting and analytical software.

How Zillow’s Home-Buying Business Blew Up

Monday, August 24, 2026
Inventory Optimization

Inventory Optimization vs. Days on hand

Dr. Chockalingam July 20, 2009

Why is it important to learn new techniques than banking on century old DOH measure? The Days of Supply is a thumb rule calculation used to manage inventory during the … Read More

Forecast Errorinventory managementinventory optimizationsafety stockSupply network optimization 3 Comments on Inventory Optimization vs. Days on hand
Forecasting Metrics and Diagnostics

Model Diagnostic – R Squared or MAPE?

Dr. Chockalingam July 19, 2009

We have now settled that MAPE or Mean Absolute Percent Error is the measure for forecast performance for a planner/Division at the end of the month.  It is more popularly … Read More

Comment on Model Diagnostic – R Squared or MAPE?
Forecasting Metrics and Diagnostics

Is MAPE controversial?

Dr. Chockalingam July 10, 2009

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percent Error.  This is the common error measure used by the Supply Chain profession.  Demand Planners and Demand Forecasters spread across the manufacturing sector use MAPE … Read More

BiasForecast AccuracyForecast ErrorMAPESales Targets 1 Comment on Is MAPE controversial?
Forecasting Metrics and Diagnostics

The Mystery of Moving Averages

Dr. Chockalingam July 10, 2009

A user in an APO forum lamented: “I am trying to use the Moving Average option in APO DP but I get a static forecast that remains constant for all the future … Read More

Constant ForecastsForecastingModelingMoving AveragesRobustness Comment on The Mystery of Moving Averages
Aggregate Planning

Hello Demand Planners!

Dr. Chockalingam July 9, 2009

Welcome to the forecasting blog! These are collection of thoughts on forecasting, demand planning, Sales and Operations planning and corporate strategy!  Please contribute your thoughts and comments to enhance the … Read More

1 Comment on Hello Demand Planners!

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