Forecast Alerts
Alerts are important. But more important is an understanding of the business to set reasonable thresholds and the mathematical common sense to use relative measures for alerting.
Tracking Signal
Tracking signal is a measure used to evalue if the actual demand does not reflect the assumptions in the forecast about the level and perhaps trend in the demand profile. … Read More
Can We Use Multiple Linear Regressions to Model Sales Promotions?
The simplest approach to model promotions is through interventions. This is also called event modeling in the literature. We collect a list of events and classify into types of events … Read More
Inventory Optimization vs. Days on hand
Why is it important to learn new techniques than banking on century old DOH measure? The Days of Supply is a thumb rule calculation used to manage inventory during the … Read More
Model Diagnostic – R Squared or MAPE?
We have now settled that MAPE or Mean Absolute Percent Error is the measure for forecast performance for a planner/Division at the end of the month. It is more popularly … Read More
Is MAPE controversial?
MAPE = Mean Absolute Percent Error. This is the common error measure used by the Supply Chain profession. Demand Planners and Demand Forecasters spread across the manufacturing sector use MAPE … Read More
The Mystery of Moving Averages
A user in an APO forum lamented: “I am trying to use the Moving Average option in APO DP but I get a static forecast that remains constant for all the future … Read More
Hello Demand Planners!
Welcome to the forecasting blog! These are collection of thoughts on forecasting, demand planning, Sales and Operations planning and corporate strategy! Please contribute your thoughts and comments to enhance the … Read More