Response to MAPE and MPE Calculations – Mark Chockalingam
This post addresses a practitioner question on MAPE and MPE calculations. In both cases, always use the measure that is volume weighted.
Demand Forecasting, Sales Planning, Big Data Analytics & IBP
This post addresses a practitioner question on MAPE and MPE calculations. In both cases, always use the measure that is volume weighted.
I will take SAS software and Forecastpro as benchmark tools here to compare the capabilities of APO DP. Between SAS and APO DP, the difference is huge. You have an … Read More
When calculating MAPE what is recommended when actuals are positive but forecast is 0 (for example when clearing obsolete stock)? Can you make the forecast match the actual quantity so … Read More
Demand volatility does NOT necessarily mean the demand is unpredictable. Demand volatility also does not mean the demand is an ugly scatter of points across the map. Forecast accuracy and Demand volatility are two different things, though there is a strong relationship between accuracy and volatility in practice. To improve forecast accuracy, you may need to do a variety of things and reducing or mitigating volatility is just one of those things.
I saw this linked in comment in a discussion group: “I hate to get technical”. That expression always bothered me, but I am wondering who IS getting technical….who is using … Read More
In the demand forecasting tutorial in New Jersey, there was a key question on forecasting during a recession. Forecasting is relatively easier in a boom. As they say the Trend … Read More
summary of the demand forecasting workshop held in NJ October 22-23.
Alerts are important. But more important is an understanding of the business to set reasonable thresholds and the mathematical common sense to use relative measures for alerting.
Tracking signal is a measure used to evalue if the actual demand does not reflect the assumptions in the forecast about the level and perhaps trend in the demand profile. … Read More
The simplest approach to model promotions is through interventions. This is also called event modeling in the literature. We collect a list of events and classify into types of events … Read More